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Analytical Essay Writing Help

June 3rd 2015 Posted at Uncategorized
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When it comes to essay writing, this is the most common form of assignment to university, high school and college students. The amount of workload on essay writing to a student within an academic session can be overwhelming hence requiring the student to seek for online analytical essay writing help. Analytical essays may be in the form of poem, short story or play for literature students. In order to achieve the best analytical essay, the student must ensure the individual parts that make the whole item are properly examined and related to form a logically and rationally organized analytical essay. In an analytical essay, the student must attempt to explain the significance of a literary work by proving a point that could be inline with plot, theme, characterization, and style.

Our company is an online academic paper writing company that is much more than a service providing company. We offer superior quality academic papers like research papers, term papers, analytical essays, and thesis and dissertation papers guaranteed of 100% client satisfaction. Unlike some online custom writing companies, our services are free from plagiarism with only negligible aspects of plagiarism that are not a risk for the student’s grade or future career life. In addition, our experts have for the last ten years provided custom writing services to thousands of students in USA, Canada, Asia, and Australia among other parts of the world. Most of our analytical essay clients are return customers who form part of our accumulating customer base. Apart from providing essay services for sale, our professional writers offer top quality analytical essay writing assistance and help to clients. With this assistance, clients are provided with useful tips in paper writing to guarantee the client’s academic success and prospered career life. Our reputation has spread far and wide with most universities, colleges and high schools making us their choice for best and fast academic custom papers services. We are proud of this achievement and have decided to remain loyal to our clients just as they are to our organization and our services. To guarantee superior analytical essay quality services, all our professional writers are effectively selected from master’s and PhD students who must be willing to work on a full time basis. This is important in ensuring our analytical essay services are completed on time, and by the same writer to avoid conflict of concept. It is also a good way of guaranteeing that all our services are delivered to the client on the right time and within the deadline limits. Additionally, the selected team is provided with advanced training and up dated occasionally with any new advancement in the academic conventions. This is a strong trait as our writers are effectively prepared to handle any form of academic requirement are required by the clients in their analytical essay writing papers. With the masters and PhD professionalism in different academic fields, the analytical essay submitted to us is written with all the requirements of the client tailored to the best of the clients’ satisfaction. Additionally, we value originality and authenticity and no paper is subject for reselling as this is an added loophole for plagiarised papers. Instead, all analytical essay papers are written from scratch with the relevant and up-to date and valid primary and secondary sources.

Author is associated with ResearchPapers247.com which is a global Custom Essay Writing and Term Paper Writing Company. If you would like help in Research papers and Term Paper Help you can visit researchPapers247.com“>Analytical Essay

Efficient Market Theory

June 3rd 2015 Posted at Uncategorized
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Here at Hypo Venture Capital we are committed to offering our clients access to the latest and broadest range of financial services and products on the market. We know that choosing the right strategy, the right investment and the right product is no easy task in this day and age! Whether its advice, investments or financial planning we are here to answer all your questions and facilitate all your financial needs.

A branch of economic thought known as ‘efficient market theory’ hypothesizes that the stock market is almost perfectly efficient in the sense that asset values are almost perfectly priced when factoring in all known information. Taking this theory to the extreme would mean that a monkey randomly choosing stocks would do no better or worse on average than a Wall Street guru.

Many people subscribe to this theory. Their main reasoning is that there are so many knowledgeable people that actively invest in stocks (think head fund managers, mutual fund managers, private equity guys, etc.) that all stocks are accurately valued. The only way to make more money in the stock market, or any aasset class for that matter, is to take on more risk. Otherwise, it’s futile to attempt to try to pick stocks since you won’t find any good deals (other people would have already found them and bid up the stock’s price).

People who believe in this theory generally just invest in broad, index funds with low expense fees. They attempt to diversify to mitigate risk (hence the appeal of ETFs or index funds) and also attempt to lower transaction costs (again, the appeal of ETFs). By investing in ETFs and index fund, they also can just park their money in the long-run, which will limit their tax liability.

The market does a pretty good job at accurately pricing stocks, and on the whole, most investors probably can’t beat a random monkey choosing stocks. But efficient market theory can’t explain why some investors consistently beat the market, such as legendary investors like Warren Buffet and George Soros. It is also stretch to think the daily gyrations of the stock market are completely rational.

It is also difficult to explain the tech boom of 95-99 and subsequent crash in 2000-2002 through efficient market theory, since this was a pretty clear episode of excessive investor exuberance for tech stocks.

Also, while there is a lot of .smart money. in the market, this ‘smart money’ is often handicapped by large asset bases. Most of the best investors have asset bases of $ 250 million+ to deal with, so they cannot put much of their funds into the stocks that they necessarily think are the best buys.

For example, if a hedge fund manager who manages $ 500 million thinks a company with a market capitalization of $ 500 million is a great buy, he cannot put much of his asset base in their physically. If he invested all of it, he would have bought the company! That, plus with a sizeable infusion of money would have bid the stock.s price up way past its value.

Furthermore, as much smart money is out there, there is also a lot of dumb money too. Plenty of people don’t know what they.re doing, and they trade based on emotion, leading to bad investment decisions. It is for these reasons that while efficient market theory has its merits, it’s a huge stretch to believe that today’s financial markets are almost completely efficient.

Want to know more?

Hypo Venture Capital is an independent investment advisory firm which focuses on global equities and options markets. Our analytical tools, screening techniques, rigorous research methods and committed staff provide solid information to help our clients make the best possible investment decisions. All views, comments, statements and opinions are of the authors. For more information go to www.hypovc.com

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Fact based Business Decisions Require On-demand Business Analytics

June 2nd 2015 Posted at Uncategorized
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Businesses sit on a wealth of transactional data stored in ERP, spreadsheets and databases; turning all that data into actionable information about current or projected business performance is a major challenge. At present, most business people rely on hard-to-understand ERP reports, spreadsheets and IT for business analytics that leads to decision making. A recent study cited that up to 40 percent of managers at some of the largest blue chip companies make business decisions based on ‘gut’ feelings rather than business analytics and facts. The reasons for ‘gut’ decision making was due to three main factors:

Lack of analytics expertise within the business – Focus is on core business of making and selling a product or service. Having the expertise needed to create or implement a business analytics solution is a luxury that many businesses cannot afford despite the obvious financial benefits.

Unresponsive IT department – Multiple departments and initiatives vying for limited IT resources means that data analysis is put on the back burner.

Late and irrelevant information – Since business relies on IT for information about business performance, by the time it gets to business users it is often no longer relevant.

On-demand business analytics solutions have addressed the above issues, enabling business people to quickly get the information they need to make decisions without relying on IT. On-demand business analytics solutions share the following attributes:

A business data model – Whether the data source is a spreadsheet or ERP, information must be presented in a way that allows business users to easily create unique perspectives that lead to information discovery. The next generation analytics solutions allow business users to navigate information in ERP using an easy-to-understand business data model.

Analytics delivered quickly – Analytics must be made available on an as needed basis. The longer information takes to get to decision makers, the less valuable that information is. The information available in the business data model can be refreshed daily from ERP so business users are always working with the latest information.

Eliminates business dependency on IT – Business must be empowered to slice and dice information based on their unique requirements, build metrics and share with others without relying on IT for help. On demand business analytics solutions empower business people to be fully self-servicing – from deployment to report building – IT does not need to be involved.

Additionally, the next wave of business analytics solutions enable business users to share and collaborate on information which leads to better decision making. Next generation business analytics vendors such as FusionOps take the guess work out of decision making by allowing business users get the information they need, when they need it without relying on IT.

For more information about Business Analytics On Demand please visit: http://www.fusionops.com/

Three Must Know Tips For Affiliate Marketing Beginners

June 2nd 2015 Posted at Uncategorized
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Affiliate marketing is perhaps the easiest way to create an income on the internet. You do not need to have your own product or even your own website. As easy as it may be, many affiliates struggle to make a living off of it, and it is probably because they are not following these tips…

Choose One Marketing Strategy

The reason that so many new affiliates are saying “how come I’m not making any money?” is because they want to try everything at once. So many beginners are writing articles, managing a PPC campaign, linking, and creating videos right on their first day of being an affiliate. They try to learn everything at once thinking that they will make more. But the truth is you are just spreading yourself to thin. Go out there and look at all the different strategies. Pick one and stick to it for at least 3 months. It is better and much easier than sticking to 10 things for 3 months.

Stick with One Product

Another thing you should be aware of especially when you are just beginning is that you should only market one or two products. As you start getting more successful, you will be mature enough to market 5 products at a time and so on. The reason you should stick to one in the beginning is because you will be able to soak in more knowledge and experience. You will have more focus. You can improve upon your mistakes and have a clearer view of what is going on.

Find a Mentor

This is the most important part. I bet that you are thinking that it is not worth paying for any kind of knowledge or mentorship. The truth is that you will make money much faster if you just let someone else teach you all the shortcuts. Let them build you a foundation and then just add on to it as you go along with your own experiments. You don’t always have to pay for this kind of help; you can simply just read the articles (or videos) of those whom interest you for free. But they always leave important pieces out. Just buy their stuff and see what can happen.

These tips are yours to keep and to follow. You can either ignore me and move on to reading another article, or you can take my advice and apply this into your own life. Remember to keep on learning and keep on adapting, this is me signing off…

The affiliate marketing information above is just a small sample from a greater map found at the Maverick Money Makers club. Click here to learn more.

The Automation Conference 2015 to Feature the Industrial Internet of Things, 3D Printing, Smart Manufacturing and Other Leading Manufacturing Developments

June 2nd 2015 Posted at Uncategorized
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Chicago, IL (PRWEB) April 20, 2015

Next month in Chicago technology end users, the designers all will convene at The Automation Conference (TAC) to explore industrial automation trends and technologies that are revolutionizing manufacturing. Now in its fourth year, TAC is designed for engineering and management professionals within discrete manufacturing, packaging, and continuous and batch processing. Topics to be covered include: the Industrial Internet of Things, 3D Printing/Additive Manufacturing, Smart Manufacturing, safety, cyber security, Manufacturing Intelligence/Big Data, and remote access.

Taking place May 19-20 at the Chicago Marriott O’Hare, the conference is produced by PMMI Media Group, publishers of Automation World and Packaging World. Presenters include professionals from NASA, The Boeing Company, TransCanada (Keystone Pipeline), General Mills, the Smart Manufacturing Leadership Coalition, MOL Danube Refinery, Corning, the Industrial Internet Consortium, Comau LLC and other well-known organizations. In addition, 16 automation solution providers will host Technology Workshops throughout both days of the conference.

David Greenfield, Automation World’s Director of Content/Editor in Chief and TAC conference moderator, shares his thoughts: “Each year, The Automation Conference delivers key insights from the front lines of manufacturing and processing industry automation. But this year, industry trends—particularly around the potential of the Industrial Internet of Things, Big Data and 3D Printing/Additive Manufacturing—are aligning in such a way that the future of manufacturing is beginning to take shape in very different ways than we have come to recognize it today. The presentations and discussions that take place at The Automation Conference 2015 will give attendees the insights they need to weather the changes that are already beginning to alter their industries.”

Registration information and details on the conference program are available at TheAutomationConference.com or by calling 1-800-355-5595.

About PMMI Media Group

PMMI Media Group is a market-leading B2B media company that produces information for processing and packaging professionals, bringing together solution providers and end-users and facilitating connectivity throughout the supply chain. Its world class media brands — Packaging World, Automation World, Healthcare Packaging, Contract Packaging and Packaging + Processing OEM— are proven leaders in covering this diverse and dynamic marketplace, and its digital products incorporate leading edge media technologies to deliver informed, actionable business intelligence to the industry. PMMI Media Group also produces The Automation Conference, an annual education and networking forum, taking place in Chicago each spring.

PMMI Media Group is owned by PMMI, The Association for Packaging and Processing Technologies, a trade association representing more than 700 companies that provide a full range of processing and packaging machinery, materials, components and containers. PMMI actively brings buyers and sellers together through initiatives such as packexpo.com, educational programs and world-class events, connecting participants in the processing and packaging supply chain with their customers around the world. PMMI produces the PACK EXPO portfolio of trade shows,

Basic Woodworking Tools

June 1st 2015 Posted at Uncategorized
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Woodworking is popular all over the world as both a profession and a pastime. There are a wide range of woodworking tools, however, when you’re first starting out you should only need a handful of them and you certainly don’t need to go out and spend loads of money.

The best advice anyone can give you is to start out buying only those tools you feel comfortable using and to add tools later on as you need them. Also, while it may be tempting to go for the cheaper tools, it’s the sturdier the tool is, the longer it will last. So if you want to save money, check for tool sales or you can even buy them second hand. If it’s a good tool, it will often last for many years.

When it comes to woodworking tools, the basics include drill bits, hammers, hacksaws, levels, pliers, safety glasses, sandpaper, screwdrivers, tape measures and wrenches. Make sure you are familiar with how to use the tool, as well as what it’s used for, before you even pick it up. Being overly confident about a tool before you learn about it is a good way to get injured.

If you are a beginner woodworker, you should always start with soft woods such as pine or spruce, as they are much easier to work with than harder woods. Once you become more comfortable, you can then move on to more exotic woods like cherry or Baltic birch.

Once you become more experienced, you can move on to power tools. Circular saws, power drills, jigsaws, random orbital sanders, table saws and compound miter saws are excellent tools to work with if you wish to create more complex woodworking projects.

No matter what woodworking tools you’re using, however, you should always put safety first. You should always wear the proper safety equipment. Safety goggles, ear protection if you’re using power tools, and gloves are necessary so as to prevent injury.

You’ll also want to pay attention to the clothing you wear. Loose fitting clothing should be avoided and instead you should choose thicker materials such as denim. This will protect you from heat as well as flying wood chips. You should also refrain from wearing any jewelery that can get snagged by any of the tools you’re using.
Woodworking can be a lot of fun as long as you educate yourself on the proper procedures and you put safety first.

For further information on hand tools, air tools and
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catalogue please visit our website at http://www.toolmart.com.au or go to

one of our 10 convenient locations throughout Perth and Bunbury.

Climb Real Estate Welcomes Broker Associate Margot Rose Lubin

June 1st 2015 Posted at Uncategorized
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San Francisco, CA (PRWEB) May 22, 2015

San Francisco-based Climb Real Estate is pleased to announce their affiliation with Margot Rose Lubin, who will join the real estate team as Broker Associate. An accomplished residential real estate agent, Lubin comes to Climb with over 10 years of sales experience in residential general brokerage.

“I have always worked well with buyers, since I am a great listener and am very patient,” said Lubin. Past clients have consistently praised her ability to walk them away from the wrong property and to seek out the right one. She considers herself an educator above all: “My goal is teach my clients about value, trade-offs, patience, diligence, and getting their ducks in a row before they let themselves become emotionally invested in any piece of property,” she said.

When working with sellers, Lubin’s strategy is to maximize the appeal of a property, including staging, creating floor plans, developing a unique marketing plan, and utilizing her vast network on both coasts to get the highest price and most qualified purchaser.

Lubin was previously a residential real estate agent in Boston with Coldwell Banker, working for the top producer of the Harvard Square office, Gail Roberts, as her buy-side agent for 5 years. She then transferred to Coldwell Banker’s flagship office in the Back Bay for another 2 years. Lubin continues to keep her Massachusetts real estate license active so that she can service clients on both coasts.

Lubin came to Climb through top producer and sales agent Gabriel Rojas. She said, “I met Gabriel Rojas at Park Tavern and instantly hit it off with him. It was a fast-paced conversation about real estate, and I could immediately tell his passion for the industry. I had been talking to several firms at the time, but I was extremely drawn to Climb’s cutting-edge approach to real estate. Michelle Balog sealed the deal for me; she embodies everything I love about this industry: honesty, integrity, professionalism, and quick wit. I knew I needed to be in a fast-paced environment, where change is embraced, not shunned, and my Bostonian style would be appreciated. Climb has embraced me and I am grateful to have teamed up with the best!”

“I could tell immediately what a genuine and sincere person she was,” said Climb agent Gabriel Rojas. “We had a lot in common, both coming from the East Coast and having a track record in real estate, and I knew that she was the real deal. Margot’s hunger and positivity shone through like a spotlight. After finding out about her incredible success in the Boston area, I knew Margot would be a tremendous asset to the Climb family. There is no question in my mind that Margot is going to be a top producer in no time!”

Michelle Balog, Climb’s Managing Sales Director, said, “Margot Lubin is a true pro. With several years’ experience as a top agent in the Boston area, Margot is able to bring her knowledge of the industry and her killer instinct as an agent to our dynamic San Francisco market. I couldn’t be more proud to have someone with as much talent as Margot on our team.”

Margot lives in Pacific Heights and has always loved the north side of town, but what drew her to the SF market are the many different neighborhoods. “I love all the city’s adorable neighborhoods, from the Dogpatch to Cole Valley to Duboce. Everything centers around parks here, unlike in Boston, where the T determines hubs.”

ABOUT CLIMB REAL ESTATE

Climb Real Estate is a recognized leader in the marketing and sales of Bay Area residential real estate. The San Francisco-based independent and locally-owned brokerage is proud to be the leader in the purchase and sale of a diverse array of homes: from $ 80,000 parking spots to million-dollar mansions in Pattaya Properties , new development studios to luxurious view penthouses, live/work lofts to charming bungalows and single-family homes. With over 11 years of experience in marketing and collective sales in excess of a billion dollars, Climb Real Estate Group offers unparalleled marketing and sales expertise with offices in Potrero Hill, Noe Valley, Mission Bay, and Oakland’s Jack London Square.

Get Started With Affiliate Marketing the Right Way!

June 1st 2015 Posted at Uncategorized
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For one reason or another you decided to get involved in affiliate marketing or some other form of online marketing. Regardless of what you are going to do I will try to give you some tips that should help your business take off more smoothly. This will not be one of those “how to get rich quick” guides. While it is possible to make thousands of dollars a day, if you are just starting out, focus on making one sale at a time. This is how real businesses grow and this is by far the fastest way of making money online. Enough chit chat, so how do you get started:

1) Make sure you have realistic goals and expectations. Like I said above it is possible to make a lot of money online. More and more people are using the internet and that means that there are more and more transactions made in the eWorld. If you want to have a piece of this cake you might want to focus on the step you are taking right now. Forget for a second about building a big mailing list if you do not know how to set up an opt in form. Make sure that you know how to set up a blog, Twitter or Squidoo account before you start thinking about lunching a new campaign. Focus on the basics and perfect them instead of looking for that next new trick.

2) Make sure that you are learning from the right people. There are so many educational products coming out every year that I could not even keep track of them, unfortunately not all of them are good. Before buying something look for reviews threw Google or any other search engine. Make sure that the person you are learning from has some experience behind them and is not just another self proclaimed guru who is selling the same rehashed information from years past.

3) Look for free samples or some other way to find out for yourself if the product is worth anything. Most of the guys out there, if they have really quality material, will send you free eBooks, links to some videos and even provide online forums in which you can ask your questions and talk with similar minded folks. Even when you move up to the more advanced stuff expect to see bonuses such as free manuals or training videos. Nothing in this world is free, but a good bargain is something that everyone is entitled to.

These are only 3 quick points but I if you apply them, you will quickly notice that about 70% of products out there just fall to the side. Making money is definitely possible; just make sure you go about it the right way.

If you are ready to stop wasting time and want to know what really brings results then visit my blog.
http://www.ihateworkblog.com/?p=43

What Is Google Saying About Your Business?

June 1st 2015 Posted at Uncategorized
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Most people agree that Google is one of the most important and influential companies on the internet today. From its market-leading search engine to its set of free web services like Gmail and Google Analytics, Google makes its presence known to millions of web users everyday. So with this kind of influence and reach, it definitely matters what Google “says” about you online. Although you cannot have complete control over what information Google publishes about your business, you can (and should!) take control of what Google shows on your Place Page in its search results.

A Place Page is a Google Maps feature that provides a web page for every “place” in the world. Google’s goal for Place Pages is to organize all the information available about a place, and display it all together in one spot. There are Place Pages for all types of places, like landmarks, cities, transit stations, points of interest, and yes – businesses. To see a Place Page, just click on the “more info” link in a Google Maps search result, or click the “more info” link displayed in the info bubble on the map itself.

You Already Have a Place Page

Whether you know it or not, Google has already created a Place Page for your business, and is at this very moment displaying whatever information it has found about you on the web, including reviews and other user-generated content. This makes it especially important that you monitor your reputation on your Place Page, and address any untrue or reputation-tarnishing information that users may have added to it. But more importantly, you should “claim” your business’ Place Page so you can add rich content like photos, videos, your business hours, the types of products and services you provide, online coupons, and links back to your website.

Another reason to claim your Place Page is because once verified, Google will display a link at the top of your page that says “owner-verified listing” with a checkmark beside it. This shows users that you are in control of your listing and they can rely on the information displayed there. And if your competitors already have verified listings, then you certainly don’t want to show up in the search results with an incomplete Place Page that has not been verified by Google!

Improving Web Visibility

Your Place Page can also help your business become more visible on the web, and provides index-able content and inbound links for the search engine spiders and bots that crawl your page. Google has already started showing Place Pages in its organic search results, (outside of Google Maps), which is another reason an optimized Place Page is important to your business today. And as users continue to move toward accessing the web from their mobile devices, local business listings will become even more important to consumers searching the web from mobile phones and devices.

Showcasing Your Business in Google

Taking control of your Google Place Page is a great opportunity to directly provide Google with the most complete, updated, search-engine-optimized information about your business, and shows off your multi-media listing to Google users. It is also another avenue for monitoring your online reputation and managing unwanted or untrue information. But mostly, a content-rich, fully completed Place Page gives your business additional visibility in Google, which can help drive more traffic to your site and new customers to your business.

Lauren Hobson, President of Five Sparrows, LLC, has more than 16 years of experience in small business technology writing, marketing, and web site design and development. Five Sparrows provides professional website, marketing, and social networking services to small businesses and non-profits at affordable prices, giving clients access to customized services that meet both their needs and their budgets. More at www.fivesparrows.com | Copyright 2009 Five Sparrows, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

Bond Binge Hangover

May 31st 2015 Posted at Uncategorized
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Normally the Federal Reserve adjusts short-term interest rates to moderate the economic cycle. Even if short-term interest rates are very low, as they are at present, long-term interest rates are typically significantly higher. Recently the Fed implemented a new policy to reduce long-term interest rates to almost unprecedented levels. This policy proved to be very effective: the yield of long-dated US government bonds, i.e. the long-term interest rate, was at a 50-year low in late 2008 and is still very close to those levels.

This policy is partly an attempt to restart the housing bubble by lowering the rates for conventional 30-year mortgages, which are tied to the overall level of long-term interest rates. A recovery in housing, the Fed reasons, would lead to a recovery of consumer spending, which in turn would ‘fix’ the economy.

As we discussed in a recent article (“Fed Policy and Credit Bubbles” by D. Bourn and M. Gremm), encouraging consumer spending is a very short-sighted way of fixing the economy that will have highly undesirable consequences down the road. However, in addition to the problems discussed in that article, abnormally low long-term interest rates pose a much more immediate danger to bond investors: By forcing long-term interest rates down, the Fed has lifted bond prices, which are inversely related to long-term interest rates, into bubble territory.

This is not a problem if long-term interest rates stay at current levels, but if the government stimuli succeed and the economy recovers, long-term interest rates will have to increase to keep inflation in check. This will cause the bond bubble to pop and investors who bought at current prices will face dramatic declines of the value of their investments.

Investors who hold their bonds to maturity are likely to lose money on their investment due to inflation. Each bond has a yield to maturity, which is the return an investor who keeps the bond until it matures will realize. At current prices, 30-year government bonds yield about 3% per year. This guaranteed rate of return is normally the main appeal of bonds. However, inflation rates have historically averaged around 4%. Assuming that this continues to hold true for the next 30 years, investors who buy these bonds now and hold them to maturity will realize a loss of about 1% per year after adjusting for inflation.

Investors who do not intend to hold their bonds to maturity are exposed to a much more immediate risk. If the various stimulus packages succeed and the economy recovers, long-term interest rates will have to increase to keep inflation in check. This will cause a steep decline in the market price of bonds. An investor who sells after the decline has taken place may face substantial losses.

Two of the largest historical declines in the market value of bonds occurred in 1994 and 1999. The value of the Ibbotson long-term government bond index declined 14% in 1994 as long-term interest rates increased from 6.5% to 8%. In 1999 interest rates increased from 5.4% to 6.8% resulting in another 14% decline. The present situation will most likely lead to much larger losses.

In order to compare the present situation with these historical periods we will consider various scenarios for a specific US government bond. We will focus on the 30-year bond with a coupon payment of 4.75% that matures on 2/15/38, which traded at about $ 1269 on 1/20/09. The yield to maturity (investment return if held to maturity) was 2.986% per year. In order to see how the price of this bond may evolve in the future, we will consider several interest rate scenarios that assume an economic recovery and one deflationary scenario.

The most likely scenario is that the government stimuli succeed and interest rates return to more normal levels as the economy and inflation pick up. If rates return to 5%, still a low yield for a 30-year US treasury, the value of our bond would decline about 29% to $ 900. The last time this bond traded near such valuations was only about 7 months ago.

Normally when the Fed floods the economy with money, inflation picks up quickly once the recovery begins. If this happens this time around, interest rates may need to be around 8% or higher to contain the problem. Yields in this range are quite plausible. They were the norm for the period from the mid ’70s to the mid ’90s. At 8% the bond would be worth about $ 590, which is a 54% decline from its present value. To put this into context, the S&P 500 declined about 47% from its May 2008 high to its November 2008 low and the declines in our historical examples were only about 14%.

A decline of this magnitude would have enormous repercussions. Supposedly safe bond portfolios held by pension funds, trusts, foreign countries (especially China), and individuals would be cut in half. Such drastic price changes are expected for stock portfolios, but for bonds price moves of this magnitude would be unprecedented.

On the other hand, there is one scenario that makes current bond prices look attractive. If the government stimuli fail, we may enter into a long deflationary period. If this happens, long-term interest rates will stay at present levels or continue to decline. If yields were to decline to 2%, the lowest they have ever been, the value of the bond would change to $ 1569, corresponding to a 24% increase in value. Investors buying bonds are current levels are speculating on long-term deflation, a low probability event with limited payout since interest rates can’t go below zero, but substantial risk since there is no limit to how high they can go.

We believe that over the 30 year life of the bond the economy will recover even if there is a deflationary period in our immediate future. Consequently long-term investors who buy bonds at present prices will most likely have to choose between holding the bond to maturity and watching the purchasing power of their investment erode due to inflation, or selling it at a steep loss due to higher prevailing interest rates at the time of the sale.

There is a certain irony in the fact that an investor who believes that the economy will recover would be unwilling to lend money to the US government at currently prevailing rates (i.e. buy a bond at market price), while an investor who believes that the stimuli will fail and that we are facing 30 years of deflation would be happy to fund as many stimulus programs as the government cares to put on.

http://www.pivotpointadvisors.com

Thalasar Ventures